How Megaprojects Are Damaging Nigeria and How to Fix It

1 Introduction: The Project Abandonment Problem.- References.- 2 What We Know About the Management of Very Large Projects.- 2.1 Project Success Factors as Lists.- 2.2 The Project Success Frameworks of Miller and Lessard and Morris and Hough.- 2.2.1 Miller and Lessard (2000).- 2.2.2 Morris and Hough (1987).- 2.3 The Nigerian Context.- 2.4 The Extended Theoretical Framework.- 2.5 What About Corruption?.- References.- 3 Structure of the Investigation.- 3.1 Overview of the Approach Taken in This Study.- 3.2 Construction and Execution of the Survey.- 3.3 Construction of the Sample of Projects.- 3.4 Construction of the Case Studies.- Appendix: Full Questionnaire as It Was Administered.- Our Request.- Project Variables.- References.- 4 A Description of the 38 Matched Projects.- 4.1 Lagos-Ibadan Express Road.- 4.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road.- 4.3 Third Mainland Bridge.- 4.4 Second Niger Bridge.- 4.5 Egbin Power Station.- 4.6 Calabar Power Station.- 4.7 Zungeru Hydropower Plant.- 4.8 Delta State (Oghareki) Power Plant.- 4.9 Shiroro Hydroelectric Power Station.- 4.10 Omoku Power Plant Station.- 4.11 Mambilla Hydroelectric Power.- 4.12 Ajaokuta Steel Project.- 4.13 Kanji Dam.- 4.14 Otukpo Dam.- 4.15 Nigeria Satellite 2.- 4.16 Nigeria Satellite 1.- 4.17 Airtel Nigeria.- 4.18 Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL).- 4.19 Godswill Akpabio International Stadium.- 4.20 (Samuel) Ogbemudia Stadium.- 4.21 Abuja International Airport.- 4.22 Lagos MMA2 Airport.- 4.23 Yenagoa International Cargo Airport.- 4.24 Jigawa Airport Project.- 4.25 Tin Can Island Port.- 4.26 Calabar Seaport.- 4.27 Victoria Garden City (VGC) Housing Estate.- 4.28 Festac Town Federal Housing Estate.- 4.29 1004 Housing Estate.- 4.30 Abuja Mass Federal Housing Project.- 4.31 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library.- 4.32 Abuja National Library.- 4.33 Nigerian Youth Empowerment Scheme (N-Power).- 4.34 Nigeria Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P).- 4.35 Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA).- 4.36 Cleaner Lagos Initiative (Visionscape).- 4.37 University College Teaching Hospital (UCH) Ibadan.- 4.38 University of Abuja Teaching Hospital (UATH).- References.- 5 Insights from the Analysis of the Questionnaires.- 5.1 Variable Distributions and Variable Capability to Detect Differences Across Projects.- 5.1.1 Each Respondent Type Adds Unique Perspectives and Information.- 5.1.2 The Variables Capture Robust Differences Between Abandoned and Completed Projects.- 5.2 Condensing Variables into Aggregated Success Factors.-5.2.1 Approach.- 5.2.2 Identifying the Factors.- 5.3 Econometric Prediction of Project Completion.- 5.4 Econometric Prediction of Cost and Schedule Overruns for Completed Projects.- 5.4.1 Effect of Variables on Budget Overruns.- 5.4.2 Effect of Variables on Schedule Overruns.- 5.5 The Corrosive Effect of Corruption.- Appendix 1 Correlations Among Independent Variables Across All 114 Responses.- Appendix 2 Factor Analysis.- Appendix 3 Specification of the Logistical Regression.- Appendix 4 The Logistical Completion Probability Regression by Respondent Group.- Appendix 5 Robustness Analysis: Cost Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group.- Appendix 6 Robustness Analysis: Schedule Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group.- 6 Two Library Projects.- 6.1 The National Library of Nigeria in Abuja: An Abandoned Project.- 6.1.1 Project Initiation.- 6.1.2 Contract Signature and Execution.- 6.1.3 Conclusion.- 6.2 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library: A Completed Project.- 6.2.1 Project Initiation.- 6.2.2 Project Execution and Outcome.- 6.2.3 The Difference Between the Two Projects: In the Words of Former President Obasanjo.- References.- 7 Two Bridge Projects.- 7.1 The Second Niger Bridge: A Stalled Project.- 7.1.1 Project Initiation.- 7.1.2 Contract Disputes and Recontracting.- 7.1.3 Continued Stalling.- 7.1.4 Diagnosis of the Reasons for Failure, in the Words of (Former) President Jonathan.- 7.1.5 Conclusion.- 7.2 The Third MainlandBridge: A Completed Project.- 7.2.1 Introduction.- 7.2.2 Starting and Stalling.- 7.2.3 Restarting the Project Under President Babangida.- 7.2.4 Project Execution and Outcome.- 7.2.5 Conclusion.- References.- 8 Two Power Plants.- 8.1 Egbin Power Station, Ikorodu Lagos State: A Completed Project.- 8.1.1 Initiation and Completion.- 8.1.2 Success Conditions and Challenges.- 8.1.3 Privatization and Trouble.- 8.2 The Calabar Odukpani Power Station: Completed but with Little Delivery.- 8.2.1 Project Initiation.- 8.2.2 Project Complications and Delays.- 8.2.3 Delivery of the Calabar Power Station in 2015.- 8.2.4 What Has Been Delivered? Lessons from the Project.- References.- 9 Two Express Road Rehabilitation Projects.- 9.1 The Lagos-Ibadan Express Road Rehabilitation: A Completed Project.- 9.1.1 Original Construction of the Express Road.- 9.1.2 A Reconstruction Project in a PPP Scheme.- 9.1.3 Restructuring the Project as a Government-Owned Project.- 9.1.4 Discussion.- 9.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road Rehabilitation: A Stalled Project.- 9.2.1 Brief History.- 9.2.2 Was the Problem the Fault of the Contractor?.- 9.2.3 Dodgy Funding and Accounting.- 9.2.4 Protest, Additional Funding and Patching Up.- 9.2.5 Conclusion.- References.- 10 Two More Power Plants.- 10.1 The Zungeru Dam/Hydropower Plant: A (Soon-to-Be) Completed Project.- 10.1.1 Brief History.- 10.1.2 Enabling Factors of Completion.- 10.2 The Delta State Oghareki Power Plant: An Abandoned Project.- 10.2.1 Initiation.- 10.2.2 The Alleged Corruption.- 10.2.3 Implications.- References.- 11 The Ajaokuta Steel Project.- 11.1 Project Initiation.- 11.2 Project Construction and Cessation by 1988.- 11.3 The PPP Revival of 2000–2007.- 11.4 The State of the Asset.- 11.5 Conclusion.- References.- 12 Insights and Recommendations.- 12.1 Summary and Discussion of the Findings.- 12.2 Developing Solutions: Inspiration from Other Countries.- 12.3 Recommendations.- 12.3.1 Recommendations Part 1: Short-Term Changes.- 12.3.2 RecommendationsPart 2: Longer-Term Structural Changes.- 13 Conclusion: The Government Responsibility.