Kostenloser Versand
Bequem zahlen
Wir sind gerne für Sie daDuring the development of modern probability theory in the 17th cen tury it was commonly held that the attractiveness of a gamble offering the payoffs:1:17 ••• ,:l: with probabilities Pl,., Pn is given by its expected n value L:~:l:iPi. Accordingly, the decision problem of choosing among different such gambles - which will be called prospects or lotteries in the sequel-was thought to be solved by maximizing the corresponding expected values. The famous St. Petersburg paradox posed by Nicholas Bernoulli in 1728, however, conclusively demonstrated the fact that individuals l consider more than just the expected value. The resolution of the St. Petersburg paradox was proposed independently by Gabriel Cramer and Nicholas's cousin Daniel Bernoulli [BERNOULLI 1738/1954]. Their argument was that in a gamble with payoffs:l:i the decisive factors are not the payoffs themselves but their subjective values u(:l:i)' According to this argument gambles are evaluated on the basis of the expression L:~ U(Xi)pi. This hypothesis -with a somewhat different interpretation of the function u - has been given a solid axiomatic foundation in 1944 by v. Neumann and Morgenstern and is now known as the expected utility hypothesis. The resulting model has served for a long time as the preeminent theory of choice under risk, especially in its economic applications.
Produkteigenschaften
- Artikelnummer: 9783540542476
- Medium: Buch
- ISBN: 978-3-540-54247-6
- Verlag: Springer Berlin Heidelberg
- Erscheinungstermin: 10.07.1991
- Sprache(n): Englisch
- Auflage: Softcover Nachdruck of the original 1. Auflage 1991
- Serie: Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
- Produktform: Kartoniert
- Gewicht: 214 g
- Seiten: 100
- Format (B x H x T): 170 x 242 x 7 mm
- Ausgabetyp: Kein, Unbekannt